Ugo Bardi, professor in the Department of Chemistry, University of Florence, Italy President reel, what are the objectives of the Association?
The Reel (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and gas), which brings leading scientists around the world, was founded by the scientist Colin Campbell, and based their studies on the theory of Hubbert, U.S. Geological Survey, which describes the course of extracting a finite resource. In the early '90s, Campbell available data and forecasts that painted a picture of the future very different from the optimistic economic growth without end. In 2003, I founded the Italian section reel, which differs a bit ' by the mother, for his emphasis on solutions, for an increasing renewable energy, rather than on the issues, which, however, not neglect. The purpose of the association will run out when you have done its homework in time to alert the world on the imminent decline of oil, the main resource on which an entire civilization is based.
many parties warns that oil is running out! Is this true? If so, when will it happen?
The "end of oil is distant at least a few decades into the future. There are other concerns that the ability of supply to meet demand. The IEA, the International Agency Energy, OECD direct subsidiary, has expressed these concerns in a few days ago a statement. This is the point, is not that there is more oil, is that there is not enough. The IEA puts the critical point in 2012, but it is clear that there are already difficulties. ASPO believes that the peak has already occurred or might occur between two to three years. Since the peak, the curve starts to decline.
How much oil remains to be extracted? There is the possibility, thanks to new technologies, that somewhere in the world they are rich deposits?
Estimates are the most diverse. Unfortunately, history often have been estimates too optimistic denied by the facts. Few remember how, in the sixties, the USGS, the Geological Survey of the United States had overstated reserves by a factor of three continental U.S.. The USGS estimates were almost certainly influenced by political factors. Factors which, in my opinion, even more recently have affected estimates are very optimistic. There are still the world's oil reserves, according to some, in an amount comparable to that extracted so far, according to others a bit more. The problem is that these reserves are more expensive to extract crude and often it is of poor quality. This is reflected in market price.
is very likely that the deposits important have been found so far. We continue to find smaller fields, but it is now since the eighties that consumes far more oil than it discovers new. It is assumed reserves of oil in the Arctic and Antarctic that will become available with the melting of ice due to global warming. But if and when we get to that point, we are too busy building dams against floods, to worry about oil.
What will happen after the peak?
The peak is only one point of a smooth transition, the oil will be increasingly expensive and we must learn to live without it. It is also true, as has already happened in history, which peaks Local oil have been accompanied by political upheavals and wars. Something similar could be done globally. Indeed, in many ways, already is ..
What are the alternatives?
The development of new technologies related to solar energy, like solar cells, whose development has been rapid in recent years. Today we source the potential to produce as much energy, even much more than it produces oil.
However, there is still a source of energy that is as compact, versatile, and cheap oil as it has been until recently. However, we will have to make compromises, especially in the field transport, which will be even more expensive today. We will be forced to save, because developing countries reclaim their party.
peaks are expected for other energy sources (gas, coal, uranium ,..)?
All minerals are subject to peak production. It must be said, however, that some resources, such as gas and coal, moving, sick and therefore do not have a truly global market as oil. For this, they have local peaks, rather than as a single global peak oil. The next peak should be important to the gas in the United States. Very unlikely the U.S. will be able to cope with the decline in domestic production with imports of liquefied gas, because the lack of adequate infrastructure. Uranium is a case in itself. At present production is only about half of demand for existing reactors, but are unable to meet it by dismantling old nuclear warheads. Probably, the peak of uranium is already many years ago, but is masked by the accumulated reserves in the form of publications. This, of course, can not last long, soon we will present a problem of shortage of uranium on the market, already indicated by soaring prices of recent years. In theory, the production of uranium could be increased, but this will require huge investments that are currently not materialize sufficiently. Nevertheless, no There is no doubt that we will see a return of nuclear energy.
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